FRIENDTIMES(06820) 招银国际·2024-03-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for FriendTimes, with a target price of HK1.00 [13][29]. Core Insights - FriendTimes reported a significant revenue decline of 31% YoY for FY23, with an adjusted net loss of RMB 133 million, which was largely in line with expectations. The decline was attributed to existing games' grossing decline and increased sales and marketing expenses [29]. - The new game "Twist of the Fate 2" (ToF2) has shown promising performance, ranking in the top 50-70 for iOS grossing in Q1 2024. The company expects ToF2 to maintain stable grossing and is focusing on expanding to Android and overseas markets [29]. - Management is prioritizing cost discipline in FY24, with adjustments in personnel and careful development of high-R&D projects. The report anticipates that mini-games will unlock additional grossing potential [29]. Financial Summary - For FY22, revenue was RMB 1,524 million, which decreased to RMB 1,056 million in FY23, with a projected recovery to RMB 1,474 million in FY24, and further growth to RMB 1,933 million in FY25 and RMB 2,048 million in FY26 [1][23]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 131.8 million in FY23 to a profit of RMB 180.3 million in FY24, increasing to RMB 256.9 million in FY25 and RMB 299.4 million in FY26 [1][23]. - The report indicates a significant drop in diluted EPS from 1.90 cents in FY22 to a loss of 6.10 cents in FY23, with a forecasted recovery to 8.27 cents in FY24 and further increases in subsequent years [1][23]. Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 50.7 in FY22 to 11.1 in FY24, indicating a more favorable valuation as earnings recover [1][25]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 68% from FY24 onwards, while the operating margin is projected to improve gradually [30][25]. - The report highlights a current ratio of 4.1 in FY23, indicating strong liquidity, which is expected to improve to 5.4 in FY24 [25].