Guoxin Securities·2024-03-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [14][26][43] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 416.6 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 123.8 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [5][14] - The company has confirmed net reserves of 678.4 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a replacement rate of 180% and a stable reserve life of over 10 years [19][35] - The company plans to increase capital expenditures, with a target of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2024, following a capital expenditure of 129.6 billion yuan in 2023 [35][43] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 454.6 billion yuan, 482.3 billion yuan, and 497.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9.1%, 6.1%, and 3.2% [3][14] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 146.8 billion yuan, 156.4 billion yuan, and 163.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18.6%, 6.5%, and 4.5% respectively [14][43] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.09 yuan, 3.29 yuan, and 3.43 yuan for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [14][43] Production and Cost Management - The actual net production for 2023 was 678 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, with specific increases in oil and gas production [19][35] - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 28.83 USD, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous year [38][40] - The company has successfully discovered new oil fields, including the Qinhuangdao 27-3 oil field, which has a geological reserve of 104 million tons [10][35] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 209.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year, with a proposed dividend of 0.66 HKD per share [41][43] - The total dividend payout for the year was approximately 54 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 43.6% [41][43]