Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 5.5 HKD, indicating an expected upside of 84% from the current price of 2.99 HKD as of March 21, 2024 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46 billion RMB in 2023, representing a growth of 6.8%, but net profit decreased by 53% to 860 million RMB. The gross margin was 7.2%, down by 2.7 percentage points, and the net margin was 2.1%, down by 2.2 percentage points [1][5]. - The coking industry is currently in a downturn, with coking prices having peaked at the end of 2023 and subsequently declining significantly in 2024. Despite this, the company's competitive position is strengthening [1][5]. - The chemical segment performed well, with revenue increasing by 21% to 18.6 billion RMB, primarily due to the commissioning of a caprolactam production line and the consolidation of the chemical business from Xuyang Zhongran [1][5]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia contributing to an increase in coking output [1][5]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 13.4 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 4.42 billion shares [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.26, 0.36, and 0.51 HKD respectively [1][6]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 49.64 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 960 million RMB, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's decline [6][14]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation methods employed include comparable company analysis and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The target price derived from these methods is 5.5 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22x, reflecting the long-term valuation despite current industry challenges [8][11]. - The DCF analysis estimates the company's market value at approximately 25.4 billion HKD, considering a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 12% and a long-term growth rate of 2% [11][8].
焦炭处于低谷，化工表现突出