Guoyuan Securities·2024-03-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% in the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company has entered a fully profitable era, achieving a total revenue of 1134.7 billion with a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. The gross margin improved to 50.6%, and the adjusted net profit reached 102.71 billion, marking the first annual profit since its listing [2]. - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 325.61 billion, a 15.1% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 53.1% and an adjusted net profit of 43.62 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 13.4% [2]. User Growth and Content Strategy - The company achieved a MAU of 700 million in Q4 2023, with a DAU of 383 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 4.5%, respectively. The average daily usage time per DAU was 124.5 minutes [3]. - The company has launched nearly 1,000 short dramas, with over 300 achieving more than 100 million views. The number of heavy short drama users increased by over 50% year-on-year, and the daily average of paid short drama users grew more than threefold [3]. Advertising and E-commerce Performance - The online marketing revenue for the year reached 603.04 billion, a 22.97% increase year-on-year, with Q4 revenue of 182 billion, up 20.6% year-on-year. Active user numbers increased by 160% [4]. - The e-commerce GMV for the year was 11844 billion, growing 31.43% year-on-year, with Q4 GMV reaching 4039 billion, a 29.3% increase. The average monthly paid user count surpassed 130 million, with a penetration rate of 18.6% [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to continue releasing profits, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 161.48 billion, 199.02 billion, and 224.23 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5].