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2023年年报业绩点评:利润扭亏,MCV业务驱动NBV较快增长
02378PRU(02378) 国泰君安·2024-03-21 16:00

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price adjustment to HKD 108.64, corresponding to 0.77x P/EV for 2023 [2] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in net profit for 2023, driven by improved investment returns, with a net profit of USD 1.701 billion [2] - The dividend payout for 2023 was 20.47 cents per share, a 9% year-on-year increase [2] - The New Business Value (NBV) grew by 43% (actual exchange rate) and 45% (fixed exchange rate), with Hong Kong contributing 267% growth, accounting for 45% of the group's NBV [2] - Mainland China's NBV declined by 40%, primarily due to product pricing adjustments and challenges in the bancassurance channel [2] - The company expects further growth in Hong Kong and a turnaround in Mainland China to drive NBV growth in 2024 [2] Financial Highlights - Revenue/Insurance service income for 2023 was USD 9.371 billion, a 9.6% increase year-on-year [3] - Gross profit for 2023 was USD 1.712 billion, compared to a loss of USD 997 million in 2022 [3] - Net profit for 2023 was USD 1.701 billion, a significant improvement from a loss of USD 1.007 billion in 2022 [3] - The PE ratio for 2023 was 16.18, and the PB ratio was 1.54 [3] Business Performance - Hong Kong's annualized new premiums increased by 276%, with the agency channel contributing 70% of the growth [2] - Mainland China's annualized new premiums decreased by 40% (actual exchange rate) and 36% (fixed exchange rate) [2] - The company added 4,000 new agents in Hong Kong in 2023, supporting future growth [2] - In Mainland China, the agency channel's annualized premiums grew by 25%, with per capita policies and NBV increasing by 11% and 26%, respectively [2] Asset Allocation - The company's total assets were USD 156.120 billion at the end of 2023, with debt securities accounting for 53.2% of the portfolio [7] - Equity securities and collective investment plans made up 41.5% of the asset allocation [7] Operational Metrics - The post-tax operating profit for 2023 was USD 2.438 billion, a 12.2% increase year-on-year [8] - The embedded value (EV) at the end of 2023 was USD 45.250 billion, a 7.3% increase from the previous year [10]