销量同比大增，新产能释放推动成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Trading Buy" [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 29.136 billion RMB for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.651 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.34% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 8.745 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.48%. The net profit for the same quarter was 1.760 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 89.25% [4][6]. - The company has multiple projects that commenced production in 2023, contributing to revenue growth, although the decline in product prices has negatively impacted gross margins [5][6]. Company Overview - The company operates in the chemical industry, with a focus on olefin products (48.6% of revenue), coking products (38.7%), and fine chemicals (12.7%) [2]. - The current A-share price is 15.60 RMB, with a target price set at 17.90 RMB [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company’s polyethylene sales reached 830,000 tons in 2023, up 18% year-on-year, while polypropylene sales increased by 14% to 750,000 tons. Coking sales also rose by 12% to 6.98 million tons [5][6]. - The average price for polyethylene was 7,084 RMB/ton (down 19% year-on-year), and for polypropylene, it was 6,759 RMB/ton (down 23% year-on-year) [5][6]. - The gross margin for 2023 decreased by 2.47 percentage points to 30.40% due to falling product prices [5]. Future Outlook - The company is in a rapid capacity expansion phase, with new projects expected to significantly increase production capacity. The total olefin production capacity is projected to double from 2.1 million tons to 5.1 million tons per year [7]. - Profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 7.881 billion RMB, 13.273 billion RMB, and 14.823 billion RMB respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 39%, 68%, and 12% [7][8].