HENDERSON LAND(00012) 交银国际证券·2024-03-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 23.84, indicating a potential upside of 3.7% from the current price of HKD 23.00 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance fell short of market expectations, with revenue increasing by 7.9% year-on-year to HKD 27.57 billion, primarily driven by moderate growth across various business lines. Core net profit remained relatively flat, rising by 0.8% to HKD 9.71 billion, but was 12% lower than Bloomberg consensus estimates. The net profit margin decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 35.2%, mainly due to a decline in development profit margin and increased net interest expenses [1][4]. - Property development profits declined, but sales performance was favorable post-policy adjustments. Property development revenue grew by 3.9% to HKD 15.21 billion, with approximately 96.5% generated from Hong Kong. The company plans to launch 13 residential projects in Hong Kong in 2024, totaling 181,000 square feet [1][4]. - Rental income remained stable, with total rental income increasing by 2.2% to HKD 6.88 billion. Future rental growth is expected from new projects, including The Henderson, which is set to complete in January 2024, and a large waterfront project in Central expected to be completed between 2027 and 2032 [1][4]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of HKD 27.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. Core profit was HKD 9.71 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8% [3][6]. - The company maintained a dividend of HKD 1.80 per share, with a core payout ratio of approximately 90% [1][4]. - The financial data indicates a projected revenue increase to HKD 34.53 billion in 2024, representing a growth rate of 25.2% [3][6].