Guohai Securities·2024-03-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [1][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue increase of 10.4% year-on-year to 38.932 billion RMB and a net profit increase of 18.6% to 5.153 billion RMB in 2023, driven by strong sales growth in premium and above beer segments and steady development in the liquor business [2][4] - The beer business saw a revenue increase of 4.5% to 36.865 billion RMB, with EBIT rising by 30.6% to 6.889 billion RMB, and a gross margin improvement of 1.7 percentage points to 40.2% [2][3] - The liquor business generated revenue of 2.067 billion RMB, with EBIT of 130 million RMB, and the company completed the acquisition of a 55.19% stake in Guizhou Jinsha [2][3] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 38.932 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 5.153 billion RMB, up 18.6% [4] - The basic earnings per share were 1.59 RMB, with a proposed final dividend of 0.349 RMB per share and a special dividend of 0.3 RMB per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 59%, an increase of 19 percentage points from 2022 [4] Business Segments - Beer Business: Revenue increased by 4.5% to 36.865 billion RMB, with EBIT up 30.6% to 6.889 billion RMB. The gross margin improved to 40.2%, and the net profit margin reached 14.2% [2][3] - Liquor Business: Revenue was 2.067 billion RMB, with EBIT of 130 million RMB. Adjusted EBIT, excluding intangible asset amortization from the acquisition, was 797 million RMB [2][3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue enhancing its product mix, driving premium sales growth, and solidifying the Heineken brand's position in the market [2][3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 41.463 billion RMB, 44.263 billion RMB, and 46.668 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.968 billion RMB, 6.953 billion RMB, and 8.046 billion RMB [6][7]