Soochow Securities·2024-03-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations with a total revenue of 32.561 billion yuan in Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and a gross margin of 53.1%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 51.4% [2][3] - The adjusted net profit reached 4.36 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 3.26 billion yuan [2] - Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached a historical high of 700 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 383 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3] - The e-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew by 29% year-on-year to 403.9 billion yuan, with the Monthly Active Customers (MAC) reaching a new high of over 130 million [3] - The company expects further profit release in 2024, with an anticipated increase in gross margin due to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses [3] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 114.448 billion yuan in 2023 to 161.367 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.29% [2] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from 15.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 29 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4] - The report adjusts the 2024-2025 adjusted net profit estimates to 16.2 billion yuan and 22.8 billion yuan, respectively, and introduces a new forecast of 29 billion yuan for 2026 [4] Key Financial Metrics - The latest diluted EPS is projected to rise from 1.47 yuan in 2023 to 5.66 yuan in 2026 [2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 32.07 in 2023 to 8.33 in 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [2] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 50.58% in 2023 to 54.80% in 2026 [9]