2023年年报点评：负债端保持高景气，下修投资收益率假设拖累EV

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10] Core Views - The company's 2023 annual report shows a New Business Value (NBV) of 31.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%, which aligns with expectations. The group's attributable operating profit is 117.99 billion yuan, down 19.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the asset management segment's performance [4][5] - The report predicts NBV growth of 7.2%, 12.0%, and 10.1% for 2024-2026, with corresponding group Embedded Value (EV) growth of 4.3%, 3.9%, and 1.0% [4][5] - The company has adjusted its long-term investment return assumptions down by 50 basis points to 4.5% and the risk discount rate by 150 basis points to 9.5%, resulting in a year-on-year decline in EV for 2023 [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The group reported a net profit of 85.66 billion yuan for 2023, a decrease of 22.8% year-on-year, mainly impacted by the asset management sector [4] - The annual dividend is 2.43 yuan per share, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 37.3%, up 7.8 percentage points year-on-year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 5.76% [4] Business Segments - The life insurance segment saw a slight decline in profit of 3.2%, while the banking segment grew by 2.1%. The property and casualty insurance segment decreased by 11.4%, and the technology segment dropped by 65.1% [4] - The individual insurance channel's NBV increased by 40.3% year-on-year, with a 22% reduction in the number of agents, indicating a successful transformation [4] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the insurance industry, with a strong growth trajectory in its life insurance business and a comprehensive financial advantage bolstered by healthcare services [4][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a Price to Embedded Value (PEV) of 0.6, 0.5, and 0.5 for 2024-2026, indicating a favorable valuation [4]