磷肥及磷化工行业深度：上游磷矿资源供给偏紧，下游磷肥需求刚性、新能源带来需求增量

Industry Overview - The phosphorus chemical industry has a rich product chain with extensive applications, involving both wet and thermal processes for phosphorus ore processing [3] - Phosphorus ore is a scarce non-metallic mineral with non-renewable and non-replaceable characteristics, and China's phosphorus ore reserves account for only 5.1% of the global total [4][18] - China's phosphorus ore has a low average grade of 17%, far below the global average of 30%, and the resource depletion problem is becoming increasingly prominent [4][20] Phosphorus Ore Market - China's phosphorus ore production in 2023 was 105.31 million tons, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with limited growth in effective supply expected in 2024 [24][26] - Phosphorus ore prices have remained high, reaching 1007 yuan/ton as of February 28, 2024, due to tight supply and strong demand from downstream industries [25][26] - The phosphorus ore market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2024, with demand supported by rigid fertilizer needs and incremental demand from new energy materials [26] Downstream Applications - Phosphate fertilizers, mainly monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP), account for over 85% of China's phosphate fertilizer market [7][39] - The new energy sector, particularly lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, is driving demand for phosphorus ore, with LFP production reaching 1.53 million tons in 2023, a 44% year-on-year increase [50][52] - Glyphosate demand is expected to increase significantly with the commercialization of genetically modified crops in China [9] Technological Trends - Wet-process phosphoric acid is expected to gradually replace thermal-process phosphoric acid due to its lower energy consumption and environmental impact [5][36] - The comprehensive utilization of by-products such as phosphogypsum and fluosilicic acid is becoming a key factor in the development of phosphorus chemical enterprises [6][37] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on the phosphorus chemical industry, citing the advantages of integrated phosphorus chemical enterprises with abundant phosphorus ore resources [10] - The development of new energy materials and high-value-added fine phosphorus chemical products are expected to drive industry growth [10]