KINGKEY SMART AGRI(SZ:000048) Guohai Securities·2024-03-21 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Jingji Zhino (000048), reported a revenue of 12.417 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 107.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.746 billion yuan, up 125.89% year-on-year [3][4]. - The pig farming business experienced rapid growth, with a significant reduction in breeding costs. The average production cost for fattening pigs in January and February 2024 was 14.50 yuan/kg, down from approximately 16 yuan/kg in 2023 [17]. - The real estate segment saw a substantial increase in sales revenue, amounting to 8.582 billion yuan, which is a 216.98% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company sold 1.845 million pigs, generating sales revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, but faced a loss of 560 million yuan in the pig farming business due to low prices [4]. - The feed business achieved sales revenue of 923 million yuan, marking a 4.16% increase, while the poultry farming segment generated 65 million yuan in sales [4]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 9.508 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 9.376 billion yuan [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 966 million yuan, 1.582 billion yuan, and 787 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.84, 6.01, and 12.08 [19][21]. - The report anticipates a decline in revenue for 2024, projecting a decrease of 33% to 8.364 billion yuan, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [21].