Guoxin Securities·2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining (601899 SH) [1][4][15] Core Views - Zijin Mining achieved revenue of 293 4 billion yuan in 2023, a YoY increase of 9%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 21 1 billion yuan, up 5% YoY [1][5] - The company's operating cash flow reached 36 9 billion yuan in 2023, a significant YoY increase of 29% [1][5] - Zijin Mining is actively advancing new projects, focusing on green and new energy minerals, with a clear long-term growth path [1][12][14] Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 68 4 billion yuan, up 3% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan, up 47% YoY [1][5] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is projected to be 315 4/337 7/355 5 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 7 5%/7 1%/5 3% [1][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 24 995/31 141/36 853 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 18 4%/24 6%/18 3% [1][15] Core Mineral Production - In 2023, Zijin Mining produced 67 7 tons of mineral gold, up 20% YoY, and 1 01 million tons of mineral copper, up 11% YoY [6] - The company targets mineral gold production of 73 5 tons in 2024 and 90 tons in 2025, with mineral copper production targets of 1 11 million tons in 2024 and 1 17 million tons in 2025 [1][7] - Lithium production is expected to reach 2 5 million tons in 2024 and 12 million tons in 2025, marking a rapid expansion phase [7] Cost Analysis - In 2023, the unit operating cost of mineral gold was 223 07 yuan/gram, up 16 3% YoY, while mineral copper's weighted average unit operating cost was 23 270 11 yuan/ton, up 17 2% YoY [1][9] - Despite cost increases, Zijin Mining's copper C1 cost and gold AISC cost remain in the top 20% globally [1][9] Project Development - The Kamoa-Kakula Phase III project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to be operational in Q2 2024, with a 500 000-ton copper smelter planned for Q4 2024 [1][14] - The Serbia copper mine expansion is expected to be completed by 2025, with an annual capacity of 300 000 tons [1][14] - The Julong Copper Mine Phase II expansion in Tibet is approved and expected to be operational by the end of 2025, with an annual capacity of 300 000-350 000 tons [1][14] Industry Outlook - The global metal mining industry is undergoing transformation, with a shift from "pursuing efficiency" to "pursuing safety" [12] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong in 2024 due to potential Fed rate cuts, while copper prices may be influenced by supply disruptions and demand dynamics [12] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize around 100 000 yuan/ton, with a prolonged upstream capacity adjustment cycle [12]