Guohai Securities·2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) [1] Core Views - Kuaishou's Q4 2023 financial performance exceeded expectations, with revenue growth driven by strong advertising and e-commerce sectors [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in advertising and e-commerce in 2024 [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, Kuaishou achieved revenue of CNY 32.56 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 16.5% [2][9] - The full-year revenue for 2023 reached CNY 113.47 billion, up 20.5% year-over-year [2][9] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 was CNY 4.36 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin improving to 13.4% [9][17] User Growth and Engagement - Kuaishou's monthly active users (MAU) reached 700 million, while daily active users (DAU) were 383 million, with an average daily usage time of 124.5 minutes [3][7] - The company has optimized user growth strategies and algorithms, leading to a decrease in customer acquisition costs [7][9] Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services revenue grew by 20.6% year-over-year to CNY 18.2 billion, accounting for 55.9% of total revenue [20][27] - Live streaming revenue remained stable at CNY 10 billion, while other business revenues increased by 36.2% to CNY 4.3 billion [23][27] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2024-2026 are CNY 127.77 billion, CNY 145.58 billion, and CNY 162.67 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at CNY 16.83 billion, CNY 25.53 billion, and CNY 32.14 billion [33][35] - The target market capitalization for 2024 is estimated at CNY 319.7 billion, with a target price of HKD 73 to HKD 81 [33][35]