Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 30.01, corresponding to a 2024 P/E of 40x [3][4] Core Views - The company's payment business is expected to continue growing, driving overall revenue growth, while the on-site e-commerce business faces pressure due to intensified competition [2][3] - The company's one-stop payment GPV reached RMB 2.88 trillion in 2023, a YoY increase of 29.19%, with the fee rate increasing from 0.123% in 2022 to 0.133% [3] - The on-site e-commerce business revenue was RMB 1.03 billion in 2023, a YoY decrease of 71.01%, primarily due to market competition and strategic profit-sharing with merchants [3] - The company's net profit in 2023 was RMB 0.1 billion, a YoY decrease of 89%, mainly due to a one-time payment of RMB 3.44 billion related to transaction fee adjustments [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 3.951 billion, a YoY increase of 15.58% [3] - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 4.774 billion in 2024, RMB 5.351 billion in 2025, and RMB 5.882 billion in 2026 [2][3] - Net profit is expected to recover to RMB 3.24 billion in 2024, RMB 4.16 billion in 2025, and RMB 5.51 billion in 2026 [3] - The PE ratio is forecasted to be 12.5x in 2024, 10.2x in 2025, and 8.0x in 2026 [2] Business Performance - The company's one-stop payment business saw a significant increase in transaction volume post-pandemic, with active merchants exceeding 1.6 million, a QoQ increase of 30.8% [3] - The on-site e-commerce business is expected to maintain growth in 2024, with GMV continuing to increase and costs significantly reduced under the partner model [3] Market and Industry Context - The company's unique positioning in serving small and medium-sized offline merchants and its independent scalable ecosystem are expected to drive future performance [3] - The rapid growth of the QR code payment market and the on-site e-commerce market are identified as key catalysts for the company's future growth [3]
2023年年报点评：支付量价齐升，到店电商业务承压