2023年业绩公告点评：收入业绩均承压，商业彰显强运营

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Longfor Group (0960) [2] Core Views - Longfor Group's 2023 revenue was RMB 180.737 billion, down 27.87% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 47.25% to RMB 12.85 billion [2] - The company's gross margin fell to 16.92%, a 4.25 percentage point decrease from 2022, mainly due to lower development margin (11% vs 17% in 2022) [2] - Sales volume decreased 13.94% to RMB 173.488 billion, while average selling price increased 4% to RMB 16,069.6 per square meter [2] - Rental income grew 8.9% to RMB 12.94 billion, with shopping malls contributing 77.4% and rental housing 19.7% [2] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: Development business turnover down 31.35%, significantly impacting overall revenue [2] - Profitability: Gross margin declined to 16.92%, with development margin dropping 6.9 percentage points to 11% [2] - Expense ratios: Management expense ratio increased to 2.91% (up 0.78ppt), sales expense ratio rose to 3.04% (up 0.33ppt) [2] Sales and Land Bank - Regional sales distribution: Yangtze River Delta (28.9%), Bohai Rim (21.8%), Western China (28.4%) [2] - Land acquisition: Added 31 plots totaling 3.68 million sqm GFA, with average land cost of RMB 9,730 per sqm [2] - Land bank: Total 45.39 million sqm, with 71.29% equity ratio and average cost of RMB 4,705 per sqm [2] Operational Highlights - Shopping malls: 88 operational malls with 7.97 million sqm GFA, achieving 96.2% occupancy rate [2] - Rental housing: 123,000 operational units with 95.5% occupancy rate, generating RMB 2.93 billion in revenue [2] - New openings: 12 new malls in 2023 (7 light-asset), with 14 more planned for 2024 [2] Financial Health - Leverage: Net debt ratio at 55.9%, debt-to-asset ratio (excluding advance receipts) at 60.4% [5] - Debt structure: Short-term debt at 13.9%, foreign debt at 17.7% [5] - Liquidity: Cash position of RMB 60.42 billion, cash-to-short-term-debt ratio of 1.36 [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecast: RMB 181.584 billion (2024E), RMB 194.204 billion (2025E), RMB 205.429 billion (2026E) [5] - Net profit forecast: RMB 12.85 billion (2024E), RMB 13.871 billion (2025E), RMB 14.704 billion (2026E) [5] - Valuation: PE ratios of 5.20X (2024E), 4.82X (2025E), 4.55X (2026E) [5]