行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 2025 年 07 月 13 日 楼市成交进入淡季，更大力度政策 值得期待 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/07/05-2025/07/11） 本期投资提示： 房地产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 行业点评 1．行业数据 1.1 新房成交量 1.1.1 成交周环比：上周 34 城周成交环比下降 50%，一二线环比下 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比下降，新房成交推盘比下降。上周（25/7/5- 25/7/11）34 个重点城市新房合计成交 198.3 万平米，环比-50.1%；其中，一二线环 比-51%、三四线环比-28.3%；7 月一手房月成交同比-16.0%，较 6 月-4.3p ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The centralized long-term rental apartment market continues to expand steadily, with the top 30 companies having a total of 1.359 million units opened by the end of June, an increase of 27,000 units from the end of May [1] - Leading companies include Vanke's "Boyu" brand with 198,200 units, Longfor's "Guanyu" brand with 123,000 units, and Magic Cube Life with 84,000 units [1] - The market expansion is supported by increases in opened units from real estate companies, local state-owned enterprises, and hotel-based rental companies [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Vanke's rental housing business reported revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with 40,600 new units added and a total of 261,400 units managed by the end of 2024 [2] - Vanke's occupancy rate stands at 95.6%, with a front-end GOP profit margin of 89.8%, maintaining industry-leading levels [2] - Longfor's rental income reached 2.65 billion yuan, a 4% increase, with an occupancy rate of 95.3% and a total of 124,000 units opened [2] Group 3: Financial Instruments and Market Dynamics - In June, the first successful expansion of a rental housing REIT in China raised over 900 million yuan for various infrastructure projects in Beijing [3] - Leading platforms have established replicable and scalable asset operation models through standardized products, efficient operations, and digital management tools [3] - Capital tools like REITs provide an efficient exit mechanism for the rental housing market [3]

智通财经7月11日电，记者获悉，龙湖已将5.225亿元人民币拨入上清所兑付账户，用于兑付7月15日到 期的"20龙湖拓展MTN001B"。公开信息显示，"20龙湖拓展MTN001B"起息日为2020年7月15日，发行 期限5年，发行规模为人民币5亿元人民币，利率为4.5%。本次龙湖兑付金额合计5.225亿元人民币，包 含本金5亿元及利息2250万元。今年以来，龙湖已如期兑付多笔境内公开债券。7月，除此笔中期票据 外，龙湖已于7月3日如期兑付"22龙湖04"，本息合计17.66亿元人民币。在"20龙湖拓展MTN001B"兑付 完成后，龙湖年内已累计兑付公开债超90亿元人民币。 (智通财经) 龙湖如期兑付"20龙湖拓展MTN001B" 已将5.225亿拨入上清所兑付账户 ...

港股内房股盘初拉升，绿地香港涨超20%，合景泰富集团涨超5%，远洋集团、龙湖集团、融创中国纷 纷上涨。 ...

7月10日午后，人民财讯报道称， 国家发改委城市和小城镇改革发展中心表示，以"两重""两新"资金为抓手，加大新型城镇化重点领域投入 。 当天，A股华夏幸福、深深房A、光大嘉宝、南山控股等多股涨停，港股地产股大幅走高。 广发证券表示， 未来一年，将迎来本轮地产下行期最重要的拐点窗口。 基于对行业新阶段量价规律理解的加深，预计政策目标及考核方式将更有 目的性，关注开发类企业配置价值。 // 新型城镇化投入将加大 // 三是允许 人口流入城市利用超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等资金，加大闲置存量土地回收和存量商品房收购力度 ，持续扩大农业转移人口保障性住 房供给。 // 地产股领涨 // 当天，7 月 10 日， A 股震荡攀升，沪指表现更佳，盘中创 9 个月新高。 上证指数收涨 0.48% 报 3509.68 点，深证成指涨 0.47% ，创业板指涨 0.22% ，北 证 50 跌 0.16% ，科创 50 跌 0.32% ，万得全 A 涨 0.38% ，万得 A500 涨 0.52% ，中证 A500 涨 0.44% 。 A 股全天成交 1.52 万亿元，上日成交 1.53 万亿 元。 据人民财讯 7 月 10 ...

Group 1 - The real estate industry is transitioning to a new development model, with the construction management business becoming a strategic focus for companies as a key aspect of asset-light transformation [1][2] - The construction management market is expanding, with leading companies accelerating their strategic layouts; for instance, Greentown Management ranked first in new signed area with 1,989 thousand square meters in the first half of 2025 [1] - In the second quarter, Longfor Group's Longfor Intelligent Manufacturing segment achieved a new signed area of 606 thousand square meters, indicating significant growth in construction management scale [1] Group 2 - The newly planned construction area for construction management companies increased by 17.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, highlighting rapid growth among late entrants in the sector [2] - "Delivery capability" has become a key industry term, with companies focusing on high-quality project delivery and participating in relief projects to ensure timely completion [2] - Greentown Management led in delivery with 25,600 units, ensuring homeowners could move in the same year through efficient project management [3] Group 3 - The emphasis on asset-light strategies and the push for high-quality delivery in construction management positions it as a significant growth area in the real estate sector, especially for companies with multi-business collaboration and refined management capabilities [3]

| 六 克面瑞 · 研究中心 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 司司居地产企业 | | | | 代建品牌传播力TOP20 | | | 排名 | 企业简称 | 得分 | | 1 | 绿城管理 | 93. 85 | | 2 | 金地管理 | 93. 23 | | 3 | 一旭辉建管 | 92. 37 (1)) | | | 蓝城集团 | 91 48 | | 5 | 润地管理 | 91. 34 | | 6 | 而今管理 | 89. 50 | | 7 | 龙湖龙智造 | 89. 26 | | 8 | 招商建管 | 89. 21 | 1、上半年新增拓展增长超预期，超800万平方米企业共5家 ◎ 文/ 克而瑞研究中心 PART1 榜单发布 2、新拓规模TOP5集中度近五成，整体延续"集中度高企、内部分化"格局 3、TOP10新拓规模同比增三成，聚焦二线成为共识 4、品牌传播聚焦"好房子"，代建企业不断完善和构建产品线 | 9 | 蓝绿双城 | 88. 94 | | --- | --- | --- | | 10 | 新城建管 | 88. 39 | | 11-11 | 建发更新建设 | 87.99 | ...

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 06 日 住建部要求多管齐下稳定预期，更大力度 推动房地产止跌回稳 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/06/28-2025/07/04） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比下降，新房成交推盘比上升。上周（25/6/28-25/7/4） 34 个重点城市新房合计成交 396 万平米，环比-0.3%；其中，一二线环比+2%、三四线 环比-38%；7 月截至上周末一手房月成交同比-25%，较 6 月-13pct；其中，一二线同比- 25%、三四线同比-23%，分别较 6 月-18pct 和+25pct。上周 13 个重点城市二手房成交 112 万平米，环比-14 ...

展望下半年，我们认为随着更多核心城市"好房子"的推出，一二线城市呈现点状 火热，而三四线城市成交规模将延续低位波动。在高得房率改善型住房的拉动下， 2025 年全年新房销售同比降幅可能缩窄，部分高能级城市新房价格企稳。 近期，关于高性价比新房对二手房的挤压效应的讨论比较多，我们认为通过得房 率、层高、地段、户型规划、"显奢"设计营造的部分新房的优势，实际上是地方 政府在地价和规划上让步的表现，自然会使得一部分新房获益。但并不存在新房一 定好于二手房或者二手房一定好于新房，谁的调整机制更灵活谁更受益。 ⚫ 关注三季度政策窗口。2025 年以来，新房市场通过"好房子"政策取得部分楼盘热 销，但是旧库存的去化仍不够理想；二手房方面，通过以价换量，取得不俗的"小 阳春"交易量，但是房价自去年 Q4 以来基本上维持持续回落态势。5 月以来，二手 房价环比下行速度加快，二手交易量自 4 月开始也出现明显回落。统计局 5 月 70 城 新建商品住宅价格环比下降 0.22%、同比下降 4.08%。可以说数据已经进入全面回 落阶段，房地产刺激政策的必要性提高。 三季度，考虑到先前"抢出口"和"抢转口"已透支了部分需求，若后续抢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on debt management and operational performance, with a clear plan for debt repayment by 2025, aiming to reduce interest-bearing liabilities to approximately 140 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Debt Management - The company has effectively reduced interest-bearing liabilities by over 30 billion yuan in the past two years, with a projected decrease to 176.3 billion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 9% [2]. - The net debt ratio stands at 52%, with an asset-liability ratio of 57% after excluding advance receipts [2]. - The company is transitioning its debt structure by replacing short-term credit bonds with long-term financing from operational properties, leading to a financing cost reduction of 0.24 percentage points to 4.0%, the lowest in five years [2]. Operational Performance - The company’s operational business revenue reached 11.02 billion yuan from January to May, showing continuous growth year-on-year [1]. - The operational and service revenue is projected to be 26.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%, contributing 70% to the gross profit [3]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction while enhancing its operational business to support overall profitability, with commercial revenue growth of approximately 20% and daily customer traffic growth exceeding 25% [3]. Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 7.92 billion yuan, 8.15 billion yuan, and 8.51 billion yuan respectively, down from an earlier estimate of 9.89 billion yuan for 2025 [3]. - A price-to-earnings (PE) valuation of 8x is assigned for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 10.24 HKD [3].