美联储3月议息会议点评

Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%, with plans to reduce $60 billion in Treasury bonds and $35 billion in MBS monthly, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates an expectation of 2-3 rate cuts in 2024, with a total reduction of 75 basis points anticipated[3] Economic Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.7 percentage points to 2.1%, with 2025 and 2026 also seeing slight upward adjustments[3] - The unemployment rate for 2024 is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0%, with long-term expectations remaining at 4.1%[5] Inflation Outlook - The PCE inflation rate for 2024 is expected to remain at 2.4%, while the core PCE inflation forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[6] Fed Chair's Commentary - Chair Powell expressed a dovish stance, emphasizing the need for more data on service price declines as a potential signal for rate cuts[6] - Despite strong economic growth, Powell highlighted the risks of inflation accelerating again due to resilient economic conditions[8] Market Expectations - The market's probability of a rate cut in June has increased, with a 90.3% chance of maintaining rates in May and a 69.4% chance of a cut in June[11] - Overall, the market anticipates a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts throughout the year[11] Gold Market Sentiment - Positive sentiment in the precious metals market is noted, driven by Fed policy expectations and increased investor risk aversion, supporting higher gold prices[15]