Changjiang Securities·2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company's revenue decreased by 6.9% to 101.7 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.5% to 4.22 billion yuan. In Q4 2023, revenue grew by 1.8% to 28.93 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 101.4% to 1.06 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company plans to distribute an annual dividend of 0.29 yuan per share (before tax) for 2023, with a dividend payout ratio steadily increasing to 50.4% of net profit [4][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue was 101.7 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, while net profit rose 3.5% to 4.22 billion yuan. In Q4 2023, revenue increased by 1.8% to 28.93 billion yuan, and net profit jumped 101.4% to 1.06 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company's professional logistics and air freight segments saw significant profit growth, driven by increased cross-border e-commerce volumes and government subsidies [4][5]. Business Segment Analysis - The company experienced a 0.2% increase in professional logistics revenue, an 11.5% decline in freight forwarding, and a 3.2% increase in cross-border e-commerce revenue in 2023. In H2 2023, professional logistics revenue grew by 1.7%, while cross-border e-commerce surged by 55.7% [4][5]. - Profit from the sea freight segment improved, with a 33.6% increase in profit per container in H2 2023, despite a decline in freight rates. The air freight segment saw a dramatic profit increase of 271.9% due to high growth in cross-border e-commerce volumes and government support [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see gradual recovery in sea freight forwarding business and steady growth in contract logistics due to strong competitive barriers. The cross-border e-commerce sector remains robust, with anticipated profitability in air freight operations [5]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 4.53 billion, 4.72 billion, and 5.04 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.2, 8.8, and 8.2 [5].