农林牧渔行业：情绪推升猪价上行，产能有望波动去化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has risen in February, driven by market sentiment, but there is a seasonal decline in demand after the Spring Festival [9][11] - The breeding capacity is expected to fluctuate as the number of breeding sows continues to decrease, indicating a potential turning point in the cycle [14][15] - The cash flow pressure on breeding entities is accumulating, which may sustain the trend of capacity reduction for some time [17][19] - The report recommends focusing on the pig breeding sector, highlighting leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as second-tier companies like Tiankang Biological and Tangrenshen [19][20] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In February, pig prices increased month-on-month, with strong demand during the pre-Spring Festival period supporting higher prices. However, prices fell significantly after the festival due to a seasonal decline in demand and active slaughtering by farmers [9][11] - The average price of piglets showed a notable increase, while the price of two-way sows remained stable, indicating farmers are speculating on market conditions for the year [9][11] Capacity Change Trends - The number of breeding sows in China was reported at 40.42 million in February, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year. This trend of capacity reduction has accumulated, with a decrease of 7.93% from the peak in 2022 and 11.44% from the peak in 2021 [14][15] - As of March 15, 2024, self-breeding farmers faced an average loss of 149 yuan per head, while those purchasing piglets experienced a slight profit of 59 yuan per head [15][19] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the low point for pig prices may have already occurred, but there could be short-term price corrections due to concentrated slaughtering by farmers. This may lead to further adjustments in production capacity [17][19] - The breeding sector is expected to see increased attention, with the breeding index still positioned at a low level, indicating significant potential for price increases [19][20] Sales Data of Listed Companies - In February, the average sales price of pigs increased for most companies, with Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope reporting average prices of 13.84, 14.29, and 13.86 yuan per kilogram, respectively [20][22] - The total number of pigs slaughtered by 15 listed companies in February was 5.43 million, a decrease of 31.35% month-on-month and 21.65% year-on-year [22][25] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs showed a slight increase, with most companies reporting growth except for Zhengbang Technology and Shennong Group, which experienced minor declines [22][25]