【粤开宏观】如何看待“基数效应”和“两年平均增速”

Group 1: Economic Analysis Challenges - The "base effect" significantly interferes with economic analysis, leading to misinterpretations of economic conditions[21] - The introduction of "two-year average growth rate" aims to mitigate the impact of abnormal base changes due to the pandemic[10] - Economic volatility has increased since the pandemic, complicating the assessment of economic performance[14] Group 2: 2024 Economic Data Insights - In the first half of 2024, economic data will still be affected by the base effect, while the second half will see reduced impact[26] - The GDP growth rates for 2023 compared to 2019 were 21.0%, 19.2%, 20.2%, and 20.1% across quarters, indicating a strong recovery[26] - The "two-year average growth rate" may not effectively eliminate the base effect in 2024 due to the instability of 2022's economic performance[59] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - There is a need to prevent the chain reaction of "low base → high year-on-year growth → policy shift" to maintain policy stability[28] - Specific analysis is required for different economic indicators due to their varying volatility patterns, rather than applying a uniform approach[28] - The use of "two-year average growth rate" in 2024 will depend on the stability of the economic indicators in 2023 and 2022[66]