Soochow Securities·2024-03-24 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable performance with a slight increase in dividends, which exceeded market expectations. The report continues to favor the valuation reassessment of this high-quality coal leader [1][8] - The company's coal production and sales have shown stable growth, compensating for price fluctuations, which supports steady performance [17][18] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of approximately 449.03 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of about 75.22%, highlighting its high dividend attributes [3][24] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 343.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 59.69 billion yuan, down 14.29%, with basic earnings per share of 3.00 yuan [2][13] - The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 90.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.65%, while net profit was 11.43 billion yuan, an increase of 8.86% year-on-year [13] Coal Production and Sales - The company reported a coal production of 324.5 million tons in 2023, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, and coal sales of 450 million tons, up 7.7% year-on-year [17][18] - The company benefits from a high proportion of long-term contracts in coal sales, which accounted for 82% of total sales, reducing the impact of coal price fluctuations [18] Power Generation Business - The company’s power generation volume reached 212.26 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, with sales volume at 199.75 billion kWh, also up 11.1% [21] - The revenue from the power generation segment was 92.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, while the cost was 76.79 billion yuan, up 6% [21] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of approximately 449.03 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of about 75.22%, which is higher than the minimum commitment of 60% [24] - The A-share dividend yield is calculated at 5.96%, while the Hong Kong share dividend yield is at 8.27% [24] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 59.6 billion yuan and 60.2 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected EPS of 3.00 yuan for 2024 [8][24] - The report anticipates a potential decrease in dividend yield to around 4.5% in a low-interest-rate environment, suggesting a possible 32% upside in stock price [24]