Huafu Securities·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [4][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 293.4 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.1 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in production of mineral products, particularly copper and gold, contributed to the overall performance growth in 2023 [2]. - Future projects are expected to add significant production capacity, including at least 45,000 tons of copper and 30 tons of gold [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 293.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9% projected for 2024 [3]. - Net profit for 2023 was 21.1 billion yuan, with a forecasted growth rate of 16% for 2024 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.80 yuan, expected to rise to 0.93 yuan in 2024 [3]. Production and Pricing Insights - In 2023, copper production reached 1.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while gold production was 67.7 tons, up 20% [2]. - The average domestic spot price for copper was 68,400 yuan per ton, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, while gold averaged 449.9 yuan per gram, up 14.7% [2]. Future Growth Projections - The company anticipates significant increases in production capacity from ongoing projects, including the Chukaru Peki copper-gold mine and the Kamoa copper mine [2]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 24.5 billion, 29.8 billion, and 33.2 billion yuan, respectively [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 24.3 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.5 for 2024 [2][4]. - The current price is 15.39 yuan, indicating a potential upside of over 20% [4][15]. Market Position - Zijin Mining is positioned as a leading player in the mining industry, with a strong growth outlook driven by production increases and favorable pricing trends [2].