Tianfeng Securities·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 161.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, setting a new record [22]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 80.6 billion, with a payout ratio of 50%, which aligns with expectations [15]. - The upstream segment saw an increase in crude oil processing volume by 15% year-on-year, while refined oil production rose by 16% [23]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 3,239,167 million, a growth rate of 23.9% compared to the previous year [5]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was 539,442 million, with a slight decrease in net profit attributable to the parent company to 149,375 million, reflecting a growth rate of 62.08% [5][19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.82, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.28 [5][19]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company’s capital expenditure for 2023 was 275.3 billion, with a projected expenditure of 258 billion for 2024 [12]. - The net operating cash flow reached 456.6 billion in 2023, resulting in a free cash flow of approximately 181.3 billion after capital expenditures [12]. Natural Gas Segment - Domestic sales of natural gas increased by 6.1% in 2023, with segment profits soaring by 232% to 43 billion, primarily due to lower import costs from declining overseas gas prices [16]. Refining Segment - The refining segment reported a unit profit of 3.7 USD per barrel processed, with chemical refining turning profitable at approximately 0.1 USD per barrel, attributed to lower procurement costs [23]. Future Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 170.3 billion, 179.3 billion, and 190.1 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9.4, and 8.9 [25].