策略周报：A股估值全景变化（数据截至3月15日）

Market Overview - The market attempted to break the sideways consolidation pattern, with an upward breakout at the beginning of the week, followed by slight adjustments in subsequent trading days. However, most adjustments were met with firm buying support, allowing the overall index to rise. The Shenzhen market indices recorded gains again [4] - Northbound capital continued to flow in, with two days of net inflows exceeding 10 billion. Southbound capital also maintained a net inflow trend. Global market performances varied, with US indices rebounding after previous declines, while European indices showed stronger upward trends, with Germany and France reaching historical highs [4] Valuation Changes - The overall A-share PE valuation increased from 13.68x on March 8 to 13.75x on March 15. Excluding banks and oil & gas, the PE rose from 18.93x to 19.14x, and the ChiNext PE valuation increased from 28.31x to 29.51x. The PB valuation for all A-shares rose from 1.379x to 1.390x during the same period [35][50] - The report indicates that the consumer style saw the largest increase in valuation, rising by 3.48%, while the stable style experienced the largest decline of 3.15% [17][37] Sector Performance - Among the CITIC first-level industries, the automotive and consumer services sectors recorded the highest gains, while coal and oil & gas sectors saw the largest declines. The automotive sector rose by 5.01%, and consumer services by 4.62% [4][34] - The report highlights that the basic chemical, light manufacturing, consumer services, and pharmaceutical sectors moved up one valuation tier, while steel, banking, and comprehensive finance sectors moved down one tier [25][51] Valuation Premiums - The valuation premium of the ChiNext relative to the main board increased from 2.45 on March 8 to 2.57 on March 15, which is below the average of 3.75 since the establishment of the ChiNext. The PB valuation premium also rose from 2.47 to 2.58, remaining below the average of 2.80 [29][39] Risk Premium Analysis - The A-share market risk premium ratio decreased from 2.355 on March 8 to 2.255 on March 15, indicating a rise in market risk appetite. The current premium level is above the mean of two standard deviations, suggesting a stronger risk preference but still in an extremely undervalued state [51][61]