南京证券股份有限公司 NANJING SECURITIES CO.LTD 2024 年 7 月 23 日 投资策略研究 策略周报-估值分析 研究员 姜凌波 [Table_InvestInfo] 上证指数 [Table_MainInfo] A 股估值全景变化（数据截至 7 月 19 日） ⚫ 内容提要 ➢ 中信一级行业一周表现：上周中信一级行业中农林 牧渔和食品饮料板块涨幅最大，轻工制造和纺织服装板 块跌幅最大。 ➢ 市场大类板块估值：从大类板块估值来看，全部 A 股（非石油石化）上涨 0.3%，涨幅最大，创业板下跌 0.01%，跌幅最大。 ➢ 不同风格板块的股票估值：风格板块估值方面，稳 定风格上涨 1.78%，涨幅最大，周期风格下跌 1.65%， 跌幅最大。 ➢ 板块估值所处区间：PE 角度看：中证 100 成份和 800 工业成份指数上行一个估值区间。中信一级行业 中，农林牧渔板块上行一个估值区间，基础化工和纺织 服装板块下行一个估值区间。目前中信一级行业中纺织 服装、医药、传媒、建筑、消费者服务和轻工制造板块 PE 估值水平明显较低。PB 角度看：800 工业成份指数 上行一个估值区间。中信一级行业中， ...

| --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | 研究员：姜凌波 SAC 执业证书： S0620522070003 联系电话：（ 025 ） 58519164 日期： 2024.4.1 | | 南京证券 | www.njzq.com.cn | ⚫ 行情梳理：3月市场在高位震荡，2月市场大涨后3月一度延续了上涨势头，但在下旬市场上行动能有所衰减，资金在业绩期开 始兑现部分热点概念题材，市场逐步回归到基本面定价，而指数级别的修复行情也暂告段落。4月将进入预计密集披露期，市场 主基调回归基本面，市场或进入震荡为主的结构行情中。中长线看当下市场性价比仍高，主要指数及多数板块估值仍处低位， 加上管理层持续释放政策利好，监管政策加码资本市场良性发展，大力托举地产市场，刺激设备以旧换新等均有利于今年经济 的稳步回升，全年经济复苏文中推进，可以保持乐观积极应对。 目录 ⚫ 3月PMI数据出炉，制造业采购经理指 ...

图表 4：全球主要权益指数一周涨跌幅(%，2024.04.08-2024.04.12) (5.00) (4.00) (3.00) (2.00) (1.00) 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 - 5 - 南京证券股份有限公司 NANJING SECURITIES CO.,LTD. 免责声明 本周市场延续了清明节前的波动调整，且重心相比节前有所下沉，此前市场的二次冲 高再度遇到了较强的阻力，使得主要指数展开了第二波调整，目前下探调整走势似乎 尚未结束，不过指数在关键点位还是表现出了一定的支撑。主要宽基指数均有所下 探，创业板指跌幅最深，沪指在红利和权重板块支撑下较为抗跌。市场风格上，消费 和成长风格领跌两市，大盘赛道股再度成为被抛售对象，稳定风格为唯一上涨风格板 块，周期风格表现紧随其后。本周北向资金交替买入卖出，但伴随美元指数的持续上 行，总体为净流出态势，南向资金保持了稳定净流入的走势。 间，只是需要等待增量利好逻辑打破当前的整理格局，而当前来看似乎这样的市场环 境还不完全具备，因此指数层面大概率会继续处于区间盘整中，投资机会的把握上在 于规避风险并通过挖掘细分板块和个股把握结构性的机会，眼下市场轮动 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on "gold + aluminum" sectors under the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong rebound since early 2024, leading among the Shenwan first-level industries with an 8.5% increase in the Shenwan non-ferrous metals index as of March 31, 2024 [2][7] - The gold sector is expected to continue its upward trend in Q2 2024, driven by changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing central bank demand for gold [2][15] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is anticipated to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in Q2 2024, with high profitability per ton of aluminum due to stable costs and recovering demand from the real estate and automotive sectors [2][43] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Review - The Shenwan non-ferrous metals index increased by 8.5% year-to-date as of March 31, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 3.1% [2][7] - The top three gainers in the sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Copper, and Zhuhai Group, while the biggest losers are Shenzhen New Star, Rongjie Shares, and Jiangte Electric [2][8] 2. Gold Sector Outlook for Q2 2024 - Gold prices are expected to rise following a period of volatility, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and ongoing geopolitical risks [2][15] - Historical trends suggest that gold performs well during the transition from interest rate hikes to cuts, with central bank demand further supporting prices [2][37] 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Outlook for Q2 2024 - The supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is projected to remain tight, with production capacity capped at approximately 45 million tons [2][43] - Demand recovery is anticipated from the real estate sector, with a notable increase in automotive aluminum usage [2][57] - The report highlights that the profitability per ton of aluminum is expected to remain high due to stable costs and recovering demand [2][66] 4. Investment Recommendations - For the gold sector, it is recommended to consider companies such as Shandong Gold, Yintai Gold, and Zijin Mining during price dips [2][70] - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, companies like Yun Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Shenhuo Co. are suggested for investment [2][70]

行业评级：推荐 拥抱变革时代，密切关注华为产业链机会 ——消费电子行业二季度策略报告 研 究 员 高宏 ...

研究员：姜凌波 SAC执业证书：S0620522070003 联系电话：（025）58519164 日期：2024.4.1 南京证券 www.njzq.com.cn | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|--------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|--------------------|----------| | 风格 | 行业 | 基本面情况 | PE（ TTM) 分位 （ 2014 年以来） | 3月涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | | | 白酒 | 节后淡季白酒表现符合预期，龙头产品价格小幅回升 | | 38.43 2.54 0.35 | | | 消费 | 医药 | 2 月全球医药融资仍处低位，关注《生物法案》后续进展 | | 13.14 -2.27 -12.08 | | | | 生猪养殖 | 24 年 H1 猪价或仍承压，产能去化结果或在下半年显现 | | 53.67 2.64 -5.97 ...

南京证券股份有限公司 NANJING SECURITIES CO.LTD 2024 年 4 月 9 日 投资策略研究 策略周报-估值分析 ➢ 板块估值所处区间：PE 角度看：中证成份指数维持在 原有估值区间。中信一级行业中，基础化工板块上行一个 估值区间，传媒板块下行一个估值区间。目前中信一级行 业中建筑和电力设备及新能源板块的 PE 估值水平明显较 低。PB 角度看：中证 500 成份指数上行一个估值区间。 中信一级行业中，基础化工、轻工制造、纺织服装和农林 牧渔板块上行一个估值区间，国防军工板块下行一个估值 区间。目前中信一级行业中商贸零售、消费者服务、医 药、非银行金融、建筑、房地产和建材板块 PB 估值水平 明显较低。 分有限公司 - 2 - 市场大类绝对估值水平变化 值水平变化 A 图 3 不同风格PE（TTM,整体法,剔除负值）,PB(整体法,最新,剔除 负值）估值水平变化 南京证券股份有限公司 NANJING SECURITIES CO.LTD | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|-------| ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a weak recovery in consumption in 2023, with the market having low expectations for the Spring Festival consumption due to its later timing in 2024. However, the overall performance during the Spring Festival was slightly better than expected, driven by increased consumer demand from returning residents and travel [2][7] - The white liquor sector showed resilience, with high-end and mass-market brands performing well, supported by rigid demand for gifting and gatherings. The industry is experiencing increased differentiation, with leading brands gaining market share at the expense of smaller players [3][21] - As of March 27, 2024, the food and beverage industry index has risen by 0.14%, ranking 13th among 31 industries. Notably, white liquor prices increased by 0.94%, while other segments like snacks and dairy saw declines [10][14] Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Industry Review - The industry is witnessing a weak recovery in consumption, with the Spring Festival period showing better-than-expected performance due to consumer demand from travel and family gatherings [2][7] - As of March 27, 2024, the food and beverage industry has a PE ratio of 25.04, which is at the 5.64% percentile level since 2019, indicating a slight valuation recovery but still at historical lows [14] 2. White Liquor: Spring Festival Feedback - The white liquor sector experienced concentrated sales activity leading up to and during the Spring Festival, with overall consumption expected to be flat or slightly up compared to the previous year. High-end liquor demand remains rigid, while mass-market brands benefit from changing consumer habits [3][18] - Leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showed strong performance in terms of sales and inventory management, with expectations for price increases post-festival to prepare for the next peak season [33][54] 3. Mass Market Products: Cost Improvements - The mass market segment is seeing a gradual recovery in downstream demand, with decreasing raw material costs and improved management of sales expenses contributing to better performance for leading dairy brands [48] - The condiment sector is also expected to improve as raw material costs decline and channel inventories are gradually digested, alongside a low base from the previous year [48] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the white liquor sector, such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, are expected to maintain steady growth and should be considered for investment during market dips [54] - For mass market products, the report highlights the potential for improved performance due to cost reductions and recovering demand, making it a sector to watch for performance inflection points [54]

南南南京京京证证证券券券股股股份份 份有有有限限限公公公司司司 2024年03月31日 NNNAAANNNJJJIIINNNGGG SSSEEECCCUUURRR IIITTTIIIEEESSS CCCOOO...LLLTTTDDD 行业研究报告 食品饮料（801120） [Table_MainInfo] 白酒淡季表现平稳 关注财报季超预期机会 行业评级： 推荐 [Table_IndustryInfo] 近一年该行业相对沪深 300 走势 投资要点  白酒淡季表现平稳，关注财报季超预期机会。白酒方面，经历春节旺季 以价换量后，节后白酒行业进入传统淡季，淡季表现符合预期，渠道价 格、经销商心态较为平稳。目前，五粮液、汾酒、今世缘等龙头公司纷 纷对核心大单品进行控价/提价，价盘小幅回升，预计经过2-3个月的消 化，批价大概率能够提升至预期水平，为下一个端午旺季做好准备。经 过春糖验证，白酒行业春节期间整体表现平稳，头部品牌展现较强韧性， 市场对于头部品牌的确定性有了重新认知；目前，白酒龙头公司估值仍 分析师声明： 处于历史较低分位数水平，建议关注春糖催化以及年报一季报拥有业绩 作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投 ...

南南南京京京证证证券券券股股股份份 份有有有限限限公公公司司司 2024年4月7日 NNNAAANNNJJJIIINNNGGG SSSEEECCCUUURRR IIITTTIIIEEESSS CCCOOO...LLLTTTDDD 行业研究报告 有色金属（801050） [Table_MainInfo] 有色金属行业周报（2024.4.1–2024.4.7）： 制造业 PMI 回暖，金属价格普遍上涨 行业评级： 推荐 [Table_IndustryInfo]  工业金属：LME 铜价本周 9189 美元/吨，周上涨 5.4%，国内铜现货价 近一年该行业相对沪深 300 走势 73400元/吨，周上涨1.8%。铜现货加工费6.5美元/吨，较上周持平。 LME铜库存11.55万吨，较上周上升2.7%，上期所阴极铜库存29.18万 吨，本周上升 0.5%。本周铜价震荡上行，主要受到国内铜冶炼厂现货 加工费迅速下滑所致，现货铜冶炼费下滑至个位数水平，同时海外部分 矿山下调 24 年铜出货量，供给端整体收缩预期下，铜价维持高位。海 外宏观方面美国3月非农就业人数增加30.3万人，大幅高于预期的20 万人，同时高于 2月 ...