【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】地产由子沛：基本面下行，仍待政策起效

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in government bond supply, with banks and funds substantially increasing their holdings of various debt instruments, indicating a shift in investment strategies within the fixed income market [1]. Group 1: Government Bond Market - The total custody amount of bonds at the end of February 2024 reached 142.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.934 billion yuan from January, although the increase was lower than the previous month by 5.884 billion yuan [9]. - The custody amount of government bonds increased by 2.626 billion yuan, while local government bonds saw an increase of 3.386 billion yuan, reflecting strong demand for these securities [9]. - The leverage ratio in the bond market has risen for four consecutive months, with an estimated leverage ratio of 108.9% at the end of February, up by 0.17 percentage points from January [1]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Behavior - Broad-based funds increased their holdings of interest rate bonds by 1.436 billion yuan, with specific increases in government bonds (345 million yuan), local government bonds (886 million yuan), and policy bank bonds (204 million yuan) [1]. - Insurance institutions reduced their holdings of interest rate bonds by 55 million yuan, primarily through reductions in government bonds (172 million yuan) and policy bank bonds (114 million yuan), while increasing their holdings of local government bonds by 232 million yuan [1]. - Foreign institutions increased their holdings of interbank certificates of deposit by 958 million yuan, while reducing their holdings of interest rate bonds by 163 million yuan [1].