【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】宏观张德礼：经济开门红的结构特征——2024年1-2月经济数据解读

Economic Overview - The report highlights that the Chinese economy experienced a "good start" in early 2024, with notable performance in production, exports, and service sectors, while infrastructure investment showed marginal slowdown and consumption is recovering from a low base [2][10]. - Industrial production accelerated, with the industrial added value growing by 7.0% year-on-year in January-February, marking the second-highest value for the same period since 2019 [2][13]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector showed strong performance, particularly in high-tech industries, with significant year-on-year growth in electronic products, rubber and plastic products, non-ferrous metal processing, transportation equipment, and chemical raw materials, all exceeding 10% [2][13]. - However, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector saw a decline in growth to 4.6%, down from over 10% in the previous months, indicating potential recovery in production demand [2][13]. Service Sector - The service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing levels from the previous two years, driven by a rebound in travel and hospitality sectors [2][13]. - Key service sectors such as accommodation, information technology services, finance, and transportation all reported growth rates above 7% [2][13]. Consumption Trends - Social retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, although still below pre-pandemic levels, with restaurant revenues growing by 12.5%, exceeding pre-pandemic growth rates [2][13]. - Sales of automobiles and communication equipment improved significantly, while clothing and other goods lagged behind, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer spending [2][13]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year in January-February, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments increasing by 9.4% and 9.0%, respectively, while real estate investment declined by 9.0% [2][13]. - Infrastructure investment showed a decrease compared to the previous year due to high base effects, but specific sectors like water and energy supply saw significant growth [2][5]. Employment and Economic Outlook - The employment situation remained stable, with urban unemployment rates slightly increasing but still below last year's levels, indicating a manageable labor market [2][13]. - The report anticipates that the economic momentum will continue to recover, supported by government policies and potential increases in long-term bonds and special bonds [2][13].