POP MART(09992) 华兴证券香港·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of HK28.65 [1][2][14]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in 2023, with revenue and adjusted net profit exceeding expectations by 36.5% and 106.3% respectively, driven by initial success in overseas markets and recovering domestic demand [4][5]. - Future growth is expected to heavily rely on overseas market expansion, while domestic growth may slow down [4][5]. - The target price has been raised to HK20.30 [4][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 6,301 million, a 36.5% increase from 2022, with adjusted net profit at RMB 1,183 million, a 106.3% increase [6][12]. - The company expects total revenue to grow to RMB 8,027 million in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 27.4% [6][13]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 1.06, reflecting a 22.3% increase from the previous estimate [6][13]. Market Performance - The company has achieved significant growth in overseas markets, with revenue exceeding RMB 1 billion in 2023, marking over 100% growth [5][8]. - The number of retail and robot stores has expanded significantly, contributing to increased sales [5][8]. - The management has set a target for overseas revenue growth of 100% in 2024, aiming for overall revenue growth of 30% [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 24.5 for 2024 and 20.5 for 2025, with an expected adjusted EPS growth of 20.5% and 19.3% for the respective years [4][14]. - The report indicates that the current valuation reflects a reasonable risk-reward profile, considering the uncertainties associated with international expansion and competition [4][14].