PING AN OF CHINA(02318) 交银国际证券·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted from HKD 64 to HKD 51, indicating a potential upside of 52.5% from the current closing price of HKD 33.45 [1][3][22]. Core Views - The report anticipates an improvement in key performance indicators for 2024, driven by stable contributions from the company's core businesses in life insurance, health insurance, property insurance, and banking [1][3][35]. - Concerns regarding the decline in the core solvency ratio are noted, but the company is expected to maintain its dividend capacity in the medium term [1][35]. - The investment logic in the industry has shifted from growth to stable profitability based on high dividends, with the company positioned favorably in the "comprehensive finance + technology" sector [3][54]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a 3.5% revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenues of RMB 946,114 million [6]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase by 13.2% in 2024, reaching RMB 96,994 million, following a decline of 22.5% in 2023 [6][55]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is expected to rebound by 11% in 2024, primarily due to growth in property insurance profits and a reduction in asset management losses [7][20]. Business Segments - Life and health insurance OPAT is projected to remain stable in 2024, while property insurance is expected to see a significant recovery in underwriting profits [20][27]. - The asset management segment is anticipated to narrow its losses in 2024, with improvements expected as capital markets stabilize [12][20]. - The report highlights that the company has successfully eliminated the drag from financing guarantee insurance, leading to an expected improvement in the combined ratio for property insurance to 99.2% in 2024, down from 100.7% in 2023 [15][21]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s current valuation reflects an attractive investment opportunity, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.8 for 2024 and a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.39 [6][54]. - The dividend per share is projected to increase to RMB 2.51 in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio based on OPAT of 35% [55]. Market Position - The company is recognized for its competitive advantage in the comprehensive financial services sector, leveraging technology to enhance its offerings [3][54]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to withstand interest rate risks due to a balanced product structure and robust investment performance [53].