市场策略报告：增量资金流入节奏放缓

Core Insights - This week, major indices, except for the Dividend Index and the Shanghai 180 Index, experienced a broad increase, with a divergence in slopes. Overall, small and medium growth stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks, with the Wind Micro Stock Index rising over 7% and several indices such as the ChiNext 50, STAR 100, ChiNext Composite, and CSI 2000 increasing by over 4%. In contrast, the Shanghai 50 and Shanghai Composite Index continued to show narrow fluctuations. On Friday, the market saw a net inflow of over 10 billion from northbound funds, driven by the FTSE Russell index's construction, although market volume has shrunk [1][3][36] - The inflow pace of ETFs, a major source of supporting funds in this round of market rally, has noticeably slowed down. The net inflow of the CSI 300 ETF dropped from nearly 25 billion last week to less than 5 billion this week, with net outflows observed in the ChiNext, STAR Market, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 ETFs [1][10][34] - Since the Spring Festival, the cumulative net buy of margin financing has increased by 99.5 billion, indicating a gradual rise in market risk appetite. Currently, the financing transaction ratio has exceeded 9%, reaching a new high in nearly a year. However, without strong catalysts, the motivation for high-risk funds to further increase positions is weak, and the inflow pace of such funds is expected to slow down [1][34] - Cumulatively, since the Spring Festival, northbound funds have seen a net inflow of 63.9 billion, with 40 billion of that occurring over the last six trading days. This has provided good support against the weakening momentum of domestic capital inflows, which is crucial for maintaining the recent upward structure of the index. Additionally, the number of reports from foreign investment banks bullish on Chinese assets has increased, suggesting that Chinese assets may be part of overseas hedge funds' barbell strategies amid high valuations in other markets [1][36] - Overall, the current rebound has generated significant profit-taking pressure, making it challenging for the index to break further upward. With the inflow pace of major incremental funds slowing down, the probability of market adjustment in the short term is high. The choice of northbound funds will be critical, and sectors and stocks favored by foreign investors, such as electronics, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, and home appliances, may be key areas for future focus [1][36] Index and Fund Market Review - The market has shown a trend of broad increases transitioning to fluctuations, with the ChiNext 50, ChiNext Composite, and ChiNext Index all rising over 4%. The small-cap indices, such as the CSI 1000 and CSI Composite, also performed relatively well, while the Shanghai 50 and Shanghai Composite Index continued to exhibit a fluctuating pattern. Industry rotation has been rapid, with real estate, healthcare, and consumer staples showing strong performance after previous declines, while energy, telecommunications services, and utilities have underperformed [15][39] Risk Appetite and Sector Heat - The current market heat is reflected in the proportion of companies with upward trends, indicating the least resistance direction. The leading sectors include non-ferrous metals, light manufacturing, and environmental protection. This week, real estate and food and beverage sectors have significantly warmed up, while the coal sector has cooled down, and public utilities, non-bank financials, and steel sectors have also seen a decrease in heat [22][42] Important Fund Behavior - Northbound fund inflows this week included significant net purchases in sectors such as electric power equipment (5.47 billion), food and beverage (4.83 billion), and automobiles (3.22 billion). Conversely, sectors like pharmaceuticals, insurance, and electronic services saw notable net outflows exceeding 3 billion [26][45]