莫畏浮云遮望眼,风物长宜放眼量
AVIC Securities·2024-03-16 16:00

Core Insights - February financial data fell short of expectations, while regulators introduced four policy documents aimed at tightening IPO access, standardizing share reduction behaviors, and promoting dividends among listed companies. These measures are intended to address market concerns and enhance the quality and investment value of A-share listed companies, thereby boosting overall market confidence in the medium to long term [1][43][56] - Foreign capital flows have shifted positively towards A-shares, with a cumulative net purchase of 70.618 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, showing an accelerating trend. The movement of northbound funds is noteworthy, as they have transitioned from a barbell strategy to a growth-oriented approach [1][10][43] Financial Data and Market Trends - The opening and resumption rates of construction sites have shown a decline, with a national average of 75.4% as of March 12, 2024, down 10.7 percentage points year-on-year. However, the decline has narrowed, indicating some stabilization in the market [21][44] - The market sentiment has improved, with the average daily trading volume increasing to 10,380.82 billion yuan, up by 468.07 billion yuan from the previous week. The overall A-share price-to-earnings ratio rose to 16.96 times, reflecting a 0.95 increase from the previous week [20][43] Sector Performance and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend state-owned enterprises and sectors less correlated with economic data, particularly in the artificial intelligence field. It emphasizes the potential of technology-related state-owned enterprises [4][56] - Following the confirmation of right-side signals, attention should shift to cyclical sectors. Investors are advised to avoid premature bets on U.S. Federal Reserve liquidity easing but to continue monitoring developments [4][56] Capital Flow and Investment Strategy - Northbound capital has shown a significant shift, with major inflows into the banking sector (high dividends), food and beverage (core assets), and the electronics industry (AI). The net purchases for these sectors were 20.007 billion yuan, 15.325 billion yuan, and 11.926 billion yuan, respectively [10][24] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring policy implementation and execution rhythms following the Two Sessions, as these will significantly influence market dynamics [29][43]