万联证券万联晨会

Market Overview - In January-February 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 81,307 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to December, but an increase of 2.0 percentage points compared to January-February 2023 [3][6] - Retail sales of goods and catering income grew by 4.6% and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively [6] Consumption Segmentation - Excluding daily necessities and cultural office supplies, all other categories showed positive year-on-year growth, with over half of discretionary consumer goods seeing an increase compared to December 2023 [3][6] - Essential categories such as grain and oil food saw an increase of 9.0%, while daily necessities experienced a slight decline of 0.7% [3][6] - Online retail sales showed a recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, reaching 21,535 billion yuan, and accounting for 26.5% of total retail sales [3][6] Online Retail Performance - The online retail sales of physical goods reached 18,206 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [3][6] - Categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw significant growth rates of 26.1%, 17.8%, and 10.8%, respectively [3][6] Economic Context - The industrial production accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 7% in January-February 2024, compared to December 2023 [26] - Fixed asset investment also showed a recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on resilient sectors such as food and beverage, which are essential consumer goods, and consider leading companies in high-end liquor, regional famous wines, beer, dairy products, and snacks [29] - The social service sector is expected to benefit from policies promoting service consumption, with recommendations for restaurants, tourism, and hotels [29] - In the jewelry sector, the demand for cosmetics has shown signs of weakness, but recovery is anticipated as the economy improves [29]