万联证券万联晨会

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's retail sales of consumer goods in January-February 2024 reached 81,307 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, which is a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to December, but an increase of 2.0 percentage points compared to January-February 2023 [17][26] - The industrial production has accelerated, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises growing by 7% year-on-year in January-February, which is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to December [4][12] - The fixed asset investment in January-February increased by 4.2% year-on-year, which is an acceleration of 1.2 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2023 [4][12] Retail Sector Analysis - The retail sales growth was driven by both essential and discretionary categories, with essential goods like grain and oil showing an increase of 9.0%, while discretionary categories like home appliances and building materials also saw positive growth [26] - Online retail sales grew by 15.3% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales reaching 18,206 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in online consumption [26][18] - The report highlights that while the growth rate of retail sales has improved compared to the previous year, it remains below the average growth rate of 9.1% seen in the three years prior to the pandemic (2017-2019) [18][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient sectors such as food and beverage, which are essential consumer goods, and highlights opportunities in high-end liquor, regional liquor leaders, beer, dairy products, and snacks [18][26] - It also recommends sectors benefiting from expanded service consumption policies, including dining, tourism, and hotels [18] - In the jewelry sector, the report notes that gold jewelry has both consumption and investment attributes, suggesting a positive outlook for leading companies in this space [18][26] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in urban areas averaged 5.3% in January-February, indicating overall stability in the job market [4][12] - The report mentions that the monetary policy remains supportive, with social financing stock growth at 9.0% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy [20]