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中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】地产由子沛:房价长期稳定的德国、新加坡有何特殊之处?-德国、新加坡保障房体系研究
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-03-12 16:00

Group 1: Core Insights - The issuance process of local government bonds in China is divided into preparation and formal issuance stages, with a limit management system governing the issuance [1] - The allocation of new local government debt limits follows a "positive incentive" principle, with "regional financial capacity" and "major project expenditures" being key determinants [1] - The special bonds' investment direction reflects government guidance on public welfare projects, with significant expansions in the scope and focus of special bonds from 2017 to 2023 [1] Group 2: Debt Limit Allocation and Management - There are three methods for adjusting local debt limits: between general and special debt limits, across regions, and across years [1] - The net increase in annual debt limit space is clearly defined, and relevant policies and case studies regarding the use of debt limit space have been summarized [1] - The repayment of local debt can utilize the method of refinancing, with a more reasonable calculation of the rollover rate proposed [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - Local bonds are primarily issued through the national interbank bond market and exchange bond market, with a small proportion through over-the-counter issuance [1] - Commercial banks are the main holders of local bonds, and the yield spread of local bonds varies between primary and secondary markets [1] - The average issuance term of local bonds is categorized into five stages, with increasing trading volume and turnover rates observed in recent years [1]