A股市场估值跟踪七十四：周期板块估值上升

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a divergence in performance among global stock indices, with Hong Kong and overseas stocks generally declining while A-shares show mixed results. The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced the largest drop at -2.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index saw an increase of 0.63% [2][77]. Global Stock Indices Performance - The report highlights that major global stock indices, particularly in Hong Kong and overseas markets, have seen declines. The S&P 500 and Hang Seng Index recorded the most significant decreases in valuation metrics, with the S&P 500's PE (TTM) declining by 0.49% and the Hang Seng Index's PE (TTM) decreasing by 1.04% [2][82]. - A-shares, particularly the CSI 300, showed an increase in valuation with a PE (TTM) rise of 1.34%, contrasting with the decline in the ChiNext Index, which fell by 1.17% [2][82]. Industry Valuation Levels - Among the industries, 2 sectors have PE (TTM) values above the historical median, while 28 sectors are below it. The top three sectors by current PE values are Computer, Defense & Military, and Electronics, while the bottom three are Banking, Construction, and Real Estate [30][48]. - The report notes that the oil and petrochemical sector saw the largest increase in valuation at 9.14%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 5.39% and utilities at 4.54%. Conversely, the real estate sector experienced the largest decline at -4.71% [44][72]. Changes in Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that 16 industries saw an increase in PE (TTM) compared to the previous week, while 14 industries experienced a decrease. The oil and petrochemical sector had the highest increase, while the consumer services sector had the largest decline [32][44]. - In terms of PB changes, 15 industries increased while 15 decreased, with the oil and petrochemical sector again leading the gains [33][71]. Risk Premium Analysis - The report mentions that the risk premium for major A-share indices has generally increased, with the Shenzhen 100 index showing the largest increase at 0.14% [38][93]. - The report also highlights that the risk premium for the CSI 300 is approaching the mean plus one standard deviation, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [19][93].