东兴证券东兴晨报

Core Viewpoints - The profitability of state-owned banks is expected to remain stable, supported by strong dividend yields and favorable policies from the central government [1][2][10] - The average dividend yield of state-owned banks is 5.35%, which is over 300 basis points higher than the 10-year government bond yield, highlighting their attractiveness in a low-growth environment [2][10] - The valuation of state-owned banks is anticipated to recover due to multiple supportive factors, including stable earnings, high dividend appeal, low institutional positioning, and government support [3][10] Earnings Stability - The profit growth rate of major state-owned banks is projected to remain steady in 2024, driven by rapid loan growth and the release of policy benefits on the liability side [1][10] - Although asset yield rates are expected to decline, the pressure on net interest margins will be alleviated, allowing for stable revenue growth [1][10] - The asset quality of major banks is expected to remain stable, with sufficient provisioning capacity to support steady profit growth [1][10] Dividend Appeal - In the current macro environment characterized by low growth and low inflation, the defensive investment value of high dividend yields is increasing [2][10] - The banking sector's dividend yield is currently at 5.29%, which is historically high, making it an attractive choice for dividend strategies [2][10] - State-owned banks have maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 30% over the past five years, ensuring reliable dividend income [2][10] Market Support - Institutional investors currently have low exposure to bank stocks, with only 1.92% of actively managed equity funds allocated to the banking sector, indicating significant room for increased investment [5][10] - The central government is expected to inject substantial funds into the banking sector, enhancing market confidence and supporting stock prices [5][10] - The outflow pressure from northbound capital is expected to ease, providing opportunities for structural increases in investment in the banking sector [5][10] Valuation Recovery - The current price-to-book ratio of state-owned banks is 0.59, reflecting a recovery of 0.11 from the low point at the end of 2022, indicating potential for further valuation support [10] - The valuation of state-owned banks remains at historical lows, which does not align with their stable earnings and asset quality [3][10]