东兴证券东兴晨报

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong stability of profitability for state-owned banks, with expectations for steady profit growth in 2024 due to their role in counter-cyclical adjustments and continued loan growth [14][21] - High dividend yields are emphasized as an attractive investment strategy in the current low-growth, low-inflation environment, with state-owned banks offering an average dividend yield of 5.35%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [15][21] - The report notes that institutional investors currently have low allocations to bank stocks, indicating potential for increased investment as market conditions stabilize and confidence improves [16][21] Banking Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the total social financing (TSF) for the first two months of the year was 8.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan, primarily due to weak credit demand and slow local government bond issuance [39] - The report discusses the decline in personal loans, with a net reduction of 590.7 billion yuan in February, attributed to weak housing mortgage demand and high early repayment rates [12][39] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable profitability levels despite pressures on net interest margins, with the potential for valuation recovery supported by favorable policies and market conditions [21][39] Real Estate Sector Insights - The report notes a continued decline in new home sales, with a year-to-date decrease of 31.95% in 26 cities, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market [46] - Recent policy changes, such as the lifting of restrictions on second-hand housing purchases in Hangzhou, are expected to impact market dynamics positively [48][61] - The report suggests that urban village renovations and affordable housing construction are becoming key drivers for real estate investment and market demand [49]