万联证券万联晨会

Core Insights - In January-February 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 81,307 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to December, but an increase of 2.0 percentage points compared to January-February 2023 [7][32] - Retail sales of goods and catering revenue grew by 4.6% and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively [32] - Online retail sales showed a recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, which is an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to December 2023 and 9.1 percentage points compared to January-February 2023 [7][33] Retail Sector Analysis - The growth rate of essential goods such as grain and oil increased, while daily necessities saw a slight decline [7] - Among optional goods, categories like home appliances and construction materials turned from negative to positive growth, while cosmetics and jewelry experienced a notable decline in growth rates [7][32] - The online retail sector accounted for 26.5% of total retail sales, with significant growth in food, clothing, and daily necessities [7][33] Investment Recommendations - For the food and beverage sector, focus on high-end liquor, regional leading brands, beer, dairy products, and snacks [33] - In the social services sector, consider investments in catering, tourism, and hotels, which are expected to benefit from policies promoting service consumption [33] - The jewelry sector, particularly gold jewelry, is anticipated to see growth due to its dual nature of consumption and investment, alongside improving consumer sentiment [33]