Tebon Securities·2024-03-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 186.3 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.25 billion yuan, up 35.98% year-on-year. The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the resolution of equity issues and improved logistics in Africa, which significantly boosted copper and cobalt sales [4][5]. - The company successfully completed two major world-class projects, TFM and KFM, which contributed to a substantial increase in copper and cobalt production. The TFM project began production in October 2023, with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt [4][5]. - The company is now among the top ten copper producers globally and remains the largest cobalt producer in the world, with significant production increases reported from its operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 54.59 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.43%, and a net profit of 5.81 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable quarter-on-quarter growth of 233.72% and a year-on-year increase of 663.01% [4]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity in Africa and aims to achieve over 520,000 tons of copper and 60,000 tons of cobalt in 2024 [4][5]. - The company announced a dividend proposal with a payout ratio of approximately 40%, amounting to an estimated total dividend distribution of around 3.3 billion yuan [5]. Production and Sales - The company reported a significant increase in production, with copper output from its Congo operations reaching 394,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 55%, and cobalt output reaching 55,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 174% [5]. - The average price for cobalt in 2023 was 273,800 yuan per ton, down 36% year-on-year, while the average price for copper was 68,400 yuan per ton, up 1.3% year-on-year [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 10.71 billion yuan, 11.66 billion yuan, and 12.25 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.8%, 8.9%, and 5.0% [5][6].