中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：城投入股银行怎么看？

Key Points - The report discusses the increasing proportion of land transfer fees from first-tier cities, which rose by 9.72 percentage points year-on-year, while second and third/fourth-tier cities saw declines of 2.43 and 7.29 percentage points respectively [4] - The average land transaction price in January and February 2024 was higher than the same period last year, with prices of 1464 CNY/sqm and 1611 CNY/sqm, reflecting increases of 23% and 15% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) accounted for 60.90% of land acquisition since 2023, with a notable increase in the proportion of SOEs acquiring land in January and February 2024 [4] Land Market Performance - In January and February 2024, the total land transfer area was 20,587.33 million sqm, a decrease of 17.25% year-on-year, while the total land transfer fees amounted to 3,128.75 billion CNY, down 3.05% year-on-year [10] - The report indicates a significant decline in commercial and industrial land, with industrial land experiencing a decrease of 13.91% [10] - The report notes that the land acquisition by urban investment companies (城投) increased, with a total of 803.35 billion CNY in land acquisition, representing 25.68% of the total [4] Urban Investment Companies and Bank Equity - Urban investment companies are increasingly investing in local banks, particularly city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, to mitigate potential risks and enhance capital [10] - The proportion of urban investment companies holding shares in city commercial banks has risen from 6.37% in 2014 to 18.95% in 2023 [10] - The report identifies that the majority of urban investment companies investing in banks are rated AA or above, with a significant concentration in provinces like Hunan and Shandong [10]