Haitong Securities·2024-03-26 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's earnings remain stable, with a significant cash dividend payout ratio of 75.2% for 2023. The company reported revenues and net profits of 343.07 billion and 59.694 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% and 14.3% [5][6]. - The coal segment's performance is impacted by a decrease in average selling prices, while the power segment shows growth in sales volume and profitability [6][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio and stable earnings, benefiting from its leading position in the energy sector [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 343.07 billion yuan, net profit of 59.694 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% and 14.3% respectively [5]. - 2024E: Expected revenue of 358.83 billion yuan, net profit of 60.133 billion yuan [12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: EPS of 3.00 yuan, with projections of 3.03 yuan for 2024E [12]. - Gross Margin: - 2023: Gross margin of 35.9%, expected to decrease to 33.7% in 2024E [12]. - Dividend Payout: - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share, representing 75.2% of net profit [5][6]. Segment Performance - Coal Segment: - Production and sales volume increased by 3.5% and 2.9% respectively, but average selling price decreased by 9.3% [6]. - Revenue from the coal segment was 273.31 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 32% [6]. - Power Segment: - Power generation and sales volume increased by 11% year-on-year, with a revenue of 92.41 billion yuan and a profit margin of 16.9% [8]. - Railway Segment: - Revenue from the railway segment was 42.96 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 37% [8]. Capital Expenditure - The company reported actual capital expenditure of 42 billion yuan in 2023, with a planned expenditure of 36.8 billion yuan for 2024, focusing on coal, power, and transportation projects [9]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield of 6% for A shares and 8.2% for H shares in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 14-15x for 2024 [6][12]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range of 42.37 to 45.40 yuan per share, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [6].