Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [9][32][36] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a 2023 revenue of 38.42 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 8.75 billion yuan, up 28.5% year-on-year [5][11] - The company maintained its leading position in the e-commerce express delivery sector, with a service volume of 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, reflecting a growth of 23.8% and a market share of 22.9% [6][13] - The report anticipates a package volume growth of 15-18% for 2024, with a focus on optimizing digital operations and enhancing service quality [8][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 166.00 - Total shares: 8.23 billion, circulating shares: 6.17 billion - Total market capitalization: HKD 136.62 billion, circulating market capitalization: HKD 10.24 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 236.4 / 124.1 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 31.86% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 13.58 [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2023, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of 38.42 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.75 billion yuan, and an adjusted net profit of 9 billion yuan [5][11] - The fourth quarter revenue was 10.62 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.19 billion yuan [11] - The company’s gross profit increased by 29.0% to 11.66 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 4.8 percentage points to 30.4% [24][30] Market Position - ZTO Express's service volume reached 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, with a market share increase of 0.8 percentage points [6][13] - The average revenue per parcel decreased by 12.0% to 1.175 yuan due to intense price competition [16][19] - The company’s single parcel cost decreased by 13.2% to 0.723 yuan, with transportation costs down by 12.0% to 0.450 yuan [21][30] Future Outlook - For 2024, ZTO Express expects a package volume of 34.73 billion to 35.64 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15-18% [8][31] - The board approved a semi-annual cash dividend plan, with a total dividend amount not less than 40% of the distributable profit for the fiscal year [31] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 42.65 billion, 47.23 billion, and 51.43 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 9.77 billion, 11.08 billion, and 12.37 billion yuan [32][33]
年报盈利符合预期，电商快递龙头地位稳固