Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][26]. Core Insights - The company's ADAS LiDAR business is expected to benefit from rapid industry expansion, achieving high growth while leveraging economies of scale and self-developed chips to reduce costs and enhance profitability. Revenue projections for 2023-2025 are estimated at RMB 10.82 billion, RMB 28.40 billion, and RMB 45.84 billion, respectively, with EPS of -2.26, -1.52, and -0.50 RMB [1][13]. - The target price is set at HK$ 46.19, based on a 4.2x PS valuation for 2025 [1][13]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 530 million in 2022 to RMB 10.82 billion in 2023, RMB 28.40 billion in 2024, and RMB 45.84 billion in 2025, reflecting growth rates of -26%, +51%, +32%, and +67% respectively [3][47]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 12.3% in 2023, increasing to 25.5% by 2025 [3][47]. - The net profit is forecasted to improve from -2.09 billion RMB in 2022 to -0.22 billion RMB in 2025 [3][47]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company ranks third globally in the market share of automotive LiDAR solutions, with a 12% global market share and a 21% share in China, excluding low-end LiDAR products [7][10]. - The company has established a significant number of designated models, with 21 pre-production customers and 62 designated models as of the end of 2023, indicating a strong competitive position [7][10]. Production Capacity and Strategic Initiatives - The company has sufficient production capacity, with two factories designed to produce different types of LiDAR, and is expected to increase overall capacity with the launch of a joint manufacturing enterprise [22][23]. - The self-developed chip strategy is expected to enhance technological barriers and reduce costs significantly, with long-term cost reduction potential estimated at 40% [12][25][32]. Industry Growth and Trends - The global automotive LiDAR market is projected to reach RMB 33.2 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 213.2%, driven by increasing demand for L2+ level ADAS [18][19]. - The penetration rate of L2+ level ADAS is expected to exceed double digits as urban NOA is gradually implemented by leading automotive companies [18][19].
首次覆盖：软硬兼修，蓄势待发