Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK12.58 [1][15]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on increasing payment fees rather than transaction volume growth in 2024, aiming for a 1 basis point increase in payment fees [4][5]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts downward, with a 24% reduction for 2024 and a 34% reduction for 2025, primarily due to lower expected growth in total payment volume (TPV) and in-store e-commerce [12][15]. - The company reported a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA by 85% to RMB 265 million for 2H23, although adjusted net profit decreased by 68% to RMB 31 million due to non-recurring service fee adjustments [8][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current rating: Buy - Target price: HK12.58 - Upside potential: +26% [1][15]. Financial Performance - 2H23 adjusted EBITDA increased by 85% to RMB 265 million, while adjusted net profit decreased by 68% to RMB 31 million [8][9]. - Revenue from one-stop payment services grew by 11% to RMB 1.65 billion in 2H23, driven by a 25% increase in TPV [8][10]. - The company reported a total payment volume (TPV) of RMB 14.6 trillion for 2H23, with a 30% increase in QR code-based TPV [8][10]. Earnings Forecasts - The 2024 adjusted net profit forecast has been reduced by 24% to RMB 427 million, and the 2025 forecast has been reduced by 34% to RMB 480 million [12][15]. - The 2024 revenue forecast is now RMB 4.91 billion, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth [13][15]. - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% for adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2026 [15][16]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to achieve a balance between payment fee increases and transaction volume growth, focusing on enhancing its merchant acquiring business and expanding overseas [5][15]. - The company plans to achieve breakeven in its in-store e-commerce segment in 2024, despite a 78% decline in revenue in 2H23 [4][8].
2024年聚焦费率而非交易量增长