Soochow Securities·2024-03-26 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's operating profit for 2023 reached 253 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant improvements in natural gas sales profitability [2] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a total dividend payout of 80.5 billion yuan in 2023, representing a 50% payout ratio [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted upwards for 2024 and 2025 to 183.7 billion yuan and 190.2 billion yuan respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 194.7 billion yuan [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 3,011 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 161.1 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% [3] - The company’s oil and gas production in 2023 was 1,759 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [4] - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with cash reserves of 269.9 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 40.8% [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 0.88 yuan per share, with projected EPS of 1.00 yuan for 2024 and 1.04 yuan for 2025 [1] - The P/E ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are 10.46 for 2023, 9.17 for 2024, and 8.86 for 2025 [1] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures in 2024 to 258 billion yuan, a decrease of 173 billion yuan year-on-year [5]