2024年1-2月经济数据点评：开局较好，仍需巩固

Economic Performance - In January-February 2024, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 50,847 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the full year of 2023[6] - Industrial production continued to accelerate, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% in January-February 2024, up from 6.8% in December 2023[69] - The real estate development investment in January-February 2024 was 11,842 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.0%, indicating a narrowing of the decline[10] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.4%, accelerating by 2.9 percentage points[6] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 6.3%, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points[6] - Private fixed asset investment was 26,753 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%[6] Consumption Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February 2024 reached 81,307 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, indicating a decline in consumption growth primarily due to base effects[52] - Retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 74,194 billion yuan, growing by 5.2%[52] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by policy incentives and economic resilience, with a dual recovery pattern anticipated in 2024[38] - The government plans to issue 1 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds this year to enhance fiscal stimulus, which is expected to support infrastructure investment growth[49]