宏观ABC系列之一：利率体系与传导机制新特征

Group 1: Interest Rate System Overview - China's interest rate system consists of two main chains: the deposit and loan interest rate system and the financial market interest rate system, with banks acting as intermediaries[13] - The deposit interest rate marketization adjustment mechanism was established in 2022, transitioning from a benchmark to a reference system based on market rates[14] - The central bank's open market operation rates, including reverse repo and MLF rates, serve as policy anchors for financial market pricing[15] Group 2: Recent Trends and Changes - Since 2022, major state-owned banks have lowered their one-year fixed deposit rates to between 1.45% and 1.48%, marking the first time these rates fell below the benchmark[29] - The one-year LPR has been reduced nine times since the 2019 reform, with a cumulative decrease of 80 basis points, currently standing at 3.45%[55] - The LPR is not necessarily bound to the MLF rate; structural changes in the LPR pricing mechanism can lead to independent adjustments[57] Group 3: Implications for Banks - The pressure on net interest margins has led banks to expect a reduction in deposit rates, which could effectively lower their funding costs[6] - A reduction in deposit rates may be a more effective way to drive down LPR than a decrease in MLF rates, as banks may lower their spreads in response to deposit rate changes[16] - The connection between government bond yields and deposit rates is crucial, as the deposit rate adjustment mechanism requires reference to the 10-year government bond yield and the one-year LPR[5]