光伏玻璃行业研究：供需趋于动态平衡，行业盈利有望触底回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as production costs decline and a temporary supply-demand gap emerges [4][3] - The supply-demand balance is projected to stabilize, with supply-demand ratios for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 111.6% and 107.9% respectively, consistent with 2023's ratio of 113.3% [2][32] Summary by Sections Section 1: Importance of Photovoltaic Glass - Photovoltaic glass is a crucial encapsulation material for solar modules, enhancing light transmission and protecting solar cells from environmental factors [9][10] - The penetration rate of bifacial modules is continuously increasing, leading to a trend towards thinner photovoltaic glass [15] Section 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The photovoltaic installation continues to grow significantly, driven by carbon neutrality goals and improved economic viability of solar power [20][24] - The supply side faces constraints due to high energy consumption, heavy asset requirements, and long expansion cycles, which will help narrow the supply-demand gap [27][32] Section 3: Cost and Profitability Outlook - The cost structure of photovoltaic glass shows that direct materials and fuel account for over 80% of total costs, with a significant portion attributed to soda ash and natural gas [36][39] - A decrease in the prices of raw materials like soda ash and natural gas is expected to lower production costs, contributing to a potential recovery in industry profitability [3][41] - The industry is currently experiencing low profitability levels, but with the anticipated cost reductions and temporary supply-demand gaps, profitability is expected to rebound [4][45] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include Fuyao Glass and Qibin Group, which are positioned to benefit from the expected recovery in the photovoltaic glass market [4][5]