美联储3月议息会议点评：保持降息节奏

Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%[1] - The decision was anticipated by the market, with a 96% probability of no change in rates prior to the meeting[1] Economic Outlook - The FOMC's statements were generally dovish, emphasizing the need for patience regarding future employment and inflation data[2] - Economic forecasts were optimistic, with GDP projections for 2024-2026 adjusted to 2.1%, 2.0%, and 2.0% respectively[26] Inflation and Employment - Recent inflation data did not alter the Fed's view on disinflation, with core PCE inflation expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.6% in 2024[26] - Strong employment data was not seen as a concern for inflation, according to Fed Chair Powell[9] Rate Cut Expectations - The dot plot maintained the expectation of three rate cuts in 2024, although there is a possibility of further adjustments based on future data[22] - Market expectations for a rate cut in June 2024 increased to 68.55% following the meeting[16] Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed will continue its balance sheet reduction at a pace of $60 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities monthly[1] - Powell indicated that slowing the balance sheet reduction may be appropriate in the near future[17]